Projection 338Canada: Have the Thoraks blown it in Quebec? - Macleans.ca
At the start of the campaign, serious evidence did not show that the Bloc québécois could be the main player in these elections. It appeared that the bloc would remain a peripheral party, which is fighting to achieve official party status in the lower house - 12 seats. Yves-François Blanchet, the charismatic new bloc leader, tried to pick fights with other leaders, repeating important points about Quebec values and pretending that all Canadian politicians were working against the province's interests.
During the first three weeks of the campaign, Blanchet visited Quebec and was ignored by all the other federal leaders. This was not necessarily a baseless strategy: why pay attention to the bloc if it is just going to upset the sovereigns of Quebec? It's best not to prick the sleeping bear, both liberals and conservatives seem to think.
In basic arithmetic, with no dominance in Ontario, similar to Stephen Harper's achievement in 2011 - 73 provinces at 106 then 44 percent of the vote - Andrew Scheer's conservatives simply have no way of winning without significant profits in Quebec. And as of this writing, however, the 338Canada Ontario average poll for liberals in the province, however, has a significant advantage. Of all the polls published last week, the Conservatives are at best in statistical terms with Ontario Liberals, and at least 10 points behind Grit.
Surveys in the Quebec field since spring have certainly shown that the Quebec Tory's net profit was possible, if not very likely. & Nbsp; Angus Reid Institute in April in Quebec questioned high-20s pipes; At the beginning of June, Léger (who knows about Quebec as well as any other) had as much as 30 percent CPC in Quebec. It seemed as though the CPC in the province had achieved growth compared to its 2015 numbers (16.7 percent of votes and 12 seats).
Unfortunately, from the start of the campaign, Quebec numbers have laid the foundations for Scheer. The CPC has fallen to third place in the province behind both the Liberals and the emerging bloc, according to the latest 338-Canada poll. & Nbsp; Here are the numbers:
From a seating position, the Conservatives seem to be holding onto their Quebec fortresses, mostly in the Quebec City area. The recent increase in support for the Bloc québécois has all but diminished the hope for net profits in the province. With a poor TVA debate last week, Scheer could blow a chance to win in the province.
The collapse of the NDP in Quebec is, as of this writing, only beneficial to the bloc and the Liberals. Recall that Tom Mulcair won 25 percent of Quebec votes in 2015, with 16 Quebec seats - the highest number for the NDP in the provinces. Since the RAK is barely double-polled in Quebec, all of these places - except for Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Berthier-Maskinongé and Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La Petite Patrie - are sure to change colors on Election Day.
I have a record that 1) Scheer needed a net profit in Quebec to win the election and 2) Justin Trudeau needed a net profit in Quebec to win the majority. In both cases, it appears that the block may encounter obstacles.