Innovative Science Survey: Quebec Shaking and Moving Battlefields - Macleans.ca
Justin Trudeau's willingness to participate twice as much in the French debate as in English has placed the microscope on Quebec's importance in winning the second Liberal mandate. And Yves-François Blanchet, manager of Bloc Québécois, seems to be looking for a more receptive audience than La Belle.
In the two elections back, the bloc only managed to win four seats in parliament. Today, a new poll shows that a growing bloc is causing some major headaches for Canada's three largest parties.
In the city of Quebec and Beauce, where the Conservatives won the majority of Republicans in the last election, the bloc has doubled its vote from 13 percent to 26 percent, according to a poll conducted by an innovative study group for Maclean, which won the party. ranks second in the region and only six points down.
Meanwhile, the bloc has risen seven points in the past month alone for Francophone Quebec voters, setting the Liberal party's rate to 31 percent. (Liberals may take part in the consolation, knowing they will increase their share of Anglo-Quebec voting.) And near the island in the Montreal area, the bloc is also on the verge of liberating francophones, the sovereign party's voting share down.
"Liberals have been hoping for NDP seats, especially in Quebec, to offset losses elsewhere," said Greg Lyle, president of Innovations. "So the rising block in Quebec is a real problem for them."
"Even the Torians have to look over their shoulder and think about what's going on," adds Lyle. "If Blanchet can use its momentum, it's a problem for the Liberals and the Tories."
As polling horse racing stabilizes, Lyle says regional numbers provide insight into changing dynamics and who could win the most seats on Election Day.
Take Atlantic Canada, for example, where liberals swept up everywhere four years ago. In 2015, Trudeau's team included 14 conservative to liberal releases. And today, liberals are polling 46 percent in those 14 exemptions, even better than their 2015 election day, according to the innovator. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have fallen to 25 percent support in those former Tory splits, which is less than their vote share in 2015.
Liberals have also witnessed the recent rapid movement in B.C. in the mainland, where liberals won the majority of seats four years ago, and Team Trudeau is now questioning 46% support, a better percentage than his 2015 results.
But on the Greater Toronto Battlefield, the Conservatives are filling the gap. According to an innovative report, according to Democratic Reports, 33 historians who have crossed liberals and conservatives closely behind liberals have nine points to four points, indicating that Andrew Scheer can count on more than 3 of the seats won in the last election by the Conservatives.
According to Lyle, in 19 states across Ontario and west of Vancouver's lower continent, scattered liberal-conservative swing measurements, which the Liberals won 13 years ago with a six-point lead, could make Trudeau vulnerable to losing some of those seats sometimes there are three points.
Back in Quebec, Jagmeet Singh has done little to stave English and French debates to stop emigration to the province where Jack Layton's NDP witnessed the Orange Wave eight years ago. Even on the 14 occasions where the NDP was strongest four years ago under Tom Mulcair - winning 13 seats and gaining 36 percent of the vote - Singh's NDP poll is currently 12 percent.
"They've taken steps to make significantly more people think of them than the other option they had last week," says Lyle. "But they have to go to the next step and knock people out of their current vote confirmation."
There is rub. With less than two weeks left until Election Day, and most Canadians say Innovative has already protested - 54 percent said they have heard everything they need to decide who will vote.
The survey results are based on the results of two online surveys of a sample of 5229 Canadians, but due to the methodology the error rate is not valid.