Battle for Quebec: Federal elections have become provinces

Battle for Quebec: Federal elections have become provinces

ANALYSIS: Here's an overview of the campaign and what might happen on election night. Hint: The separatist party may eventually maintain a balance of power.

It has often sounded like a Quebec election or a 21st draft referendum, provincial law prohibiting some civil servants from wearing religious symbols.

But no, it's definitely a federal election campaign that will end this weekend and voters' final decision on who will become Canada's prime minister on Monday night.

When the clock hits October 21, it looks like a squirt. Poll organizers refer to minority government, giving more influence to smaller parties such as the Bloc in Québécois and the New Democrats.

But polls and seat projections have been done wrong in the past. Just last year, few provincial studies predicted the magnitude of the victory of Premier François Legault's coalition in Avenir Quebec or the collapse of Quebec liberals.

National polls also fail to predict many close multi-party competitions. In previous elections, 70 cuts were made across Canada, including 20 in Quebec, by five percentage points or less.

And polls themselves can affect the outcome, as voters switch election methods to choosing or voting on strategic ballots that they do not usually support.

As Canadians enter the home squad, what has happened here in the last five weeks and what to expect in an election that may depend on who wins the battle for Quebec's 78 lower house of parliament.

If Legault - a former sovereign who now calls himself a nationalist and never promises to hold a referendum on sovereignty - Legault, a year after winning power, remains a major reserve of political capital.

It began on the first day of the campaign, when Legault called on leaders to put forward a bill 21 aimed at teachers, police, government lawyers and judges. Most Quebec francophone majority support secularism laws; opponents include all the major federal leaders, except for the Yves-François Blanchet in Quebec-centric Bloc Quebec.

"I urge all federal parties to convince the Quebec population and persuade them not to take part in the lawsuits filed against Law 21," Legault told reporters hours after the election.

Quebec should decide on the total number of immigrants admitted and set the conditions for permanent residence, including a French language exam and a Quebec values ​​test, she insisted.

And Bill 101 should apply to institutions under federal jurisdiction, such as banks. Plus Quebecers should only fill in one tax form - and it should be administered by Quebec, Legault added.

Arriving at Gatineau's English debate: Yves-François Blanchet, leader of Bloc Québécois, has been a cool embodiment, launching an almost flawless campaign. CARLOS OSORIO / REUTRID

Bloc in Quebec had been a supporter of life for many years, and the catastrophic term of leader Martine Ouellet - most of whom turned down protest - seemed to be the last pound in the coffin. After winning the federal elections from 1993 to 2008, he won only 10 seats. As sovereignty was supported by a low stream, the last rites began to be performed.

The Quebecers then took a nationalistic turn, giving the Legault a large majority in CAQ. And Legault's shopping list gave Blanchet a chance to ride the CAQ caves.

Former Parti Québécois minister and political politician for television, Blanchet - the leader since January - pledged to swiftly fight all CAQ demands, calling himself the only leader who was thick and thin with Quebec.

Instead of sweeping, the party is now hoping to increase its seats significantly, as it benefits the expected collapse of the NDP in Quebec and diminishes interest among Liberals and Conservatives.

Blanchet is always ready to take off his reputation as a politician as an argument, but it has been a cool embodiment, launching an almost flawless campaign. It may have been helped by the fact that the recovery of the few was not as thoroughly controlled by the media as other leaders, at least at the start of the campaign.

Blanchet, for example, is styling himself as a climate change campaigner, even though critics call it at best an accurate record when he was PQ Minister for the Environment. He supported the opening of a door for oil exploration on Anticost Island and approved a pollutant cement plant at Gaspe.

And Singh has said it is "disgusting" that Blanchet wants Ottawa to ban people from providing or accepting federal services in the face-facing process of targeting Muslim Niqab women.

In 2015, the bloc used this issue to suck votes away from the RDP, which supported allowing women to wear naqabs at citizenship ceremonies. But in this campaign, Blanchet seemed reluctant to publicize the polarizing subject, choosing not to raise it in the debate.

Support has remained firmly established among his most loyal supporters of Quebec - non-Francophone Montreal, who still has a big plan to vote for the Liberals, polls show.

However, according to polls conducted by Léger Marketing in October, Francophones appear to leave the liberals as the bloc grows. Among French speakers, Liberals fell four percentage points to 24 percent after the first two debates. Meanwhile, Blok's share of francophone votes rose by 11 percentage points to 37 percent.

Trudeau has been consistent in the bill 21. He has said since the start of the campaign that Ottawa is not "joining the lawsuit" in the battle for legislation "at this time.

But in the October 7 English debate, he seemed able to portray himself as the only minority defender, boasting that he was "the only one on the stage who has said, yes, the federal government may have to intervene."

This earned him a reprimand from the Legault. "I do not want to interfere with who we are voting for, but we have to say that what Mr Trudeau said last night was very unfortunate," the Prime Minister said, adding that Trudeau turned his back on the "popular will of the people". Quebecers.

Or is the hypocrite moniker stuck? A climate change campaigner who spent $ 4.5 billion on an oil pipeline and owns two campaign transport aircraft. The Paragon of Virtue, who repeatedly wore black and brown. The Master of Reconciliation who dismissed the first Indigenous Minister for Justice, Jody Wilson-Raybould.

The conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, is around Saint-Jerome: All leaders seem to find that the Scheer platform best meets the demands of Quebec Prime Minister Francois Legault. CARLOS OSORIO / REUTRID

Conservatives hope to benefit Quebec by expanding the party's strength in the Quebec City area. But polls show leader Andrew Scheer has fallen flat in the province, falling from second to third.

Of the larger party leaders, Scheer's positions seem to best meet Legault's demands. The Conservatives say they will never challenge Bill 21 and would be a good example of a Quebecer tax return.

But Legault rejected Scheer because he suggested that the Conservative government could unilaterally establish a pipeline for Quebec as part of a coast-to-coast "energy corridor". Quebec's prime minister said his province must have the final say on pipelines and Quebecers are not interested in the Scheer project.

The bloc has focused on Scheer's support for the fossil fuel industry and its political base in oil-rich western Canada, the cause of climate-conscious Quebecers for the Conservatives.

For his part, Scheer raises the spectrum of yet another sovereign referendum to warn against the Quebecer bloc, citing that the party's sole purpose is to incite separatists to help the PQ.

He received particularly poor reviews for the first debate, where he repeated questions about his personal abortion rights. A day later, he decided to declare himself opposed to abortion, reiterating his pledge not to discuss the issue again.

Socialist Conservative Scheer has also been questioned about his position on gay marriage as he has previously opposed the idea. In a 2005 speech, he compared same-sex marriage to tailing a dog's tail.

According to Scheer, Trudeau was "not as advertised," but recently it emerged that the Conservative leader had lied for years in his own resume, calling himself an insurance broker when he was, in fact, a six-month official.

He questioned opponents' dual citizenship, but then had to admit to being a dual citizen, who only started the process of quitting in the US just a day before the election.

Scheer said Trudeau's black-faced apology was not "true and open" when he himself refused to apologize for same-sex marriage comments and did not say whether his position had changed since the comments were made.

Newcomer Jagmeet Singh, a new leader of the Democratic Party in Quebec, could help prevent a complete routine predicted before the election. CHRISTINNE MUSCHI / REUTERS

Some have speculated that the Sikh-wearing Sikh Singh should have a massive failure in Quebec, as most constituents in the province say they do not want the authorities to wear religious symbols. This has not happened.

The Léger poll, which took place after the first two debates, found support for the NDP by three percentage points to 13 percent compared to last week. This is far from the support the party received in 2011 (43 percent) or even in 2015 (25 percent), but Singh's re-established popularity may help prevent a complete routine predicted before the election.

Instead of targeting Trudeau when the black controversy broke out, Singh sent an emotional message to the Canadians, all the while reminding them that they were being joked, that they were hurt, that they were hurt, that they were forced to feel less because who they are. "

When the Montreal voter told the NDP leader to take off his turban to make him look more Canadian, Singh said "it's Canada - you can do whatever you want," he shook his hand and walked away.

Speaking to reporters after the Oct. 7 debate, Singh unexpectedly raised Ottawa's chance to take part in a court battle that is widely regarded as a political shift.

"If it reaches the Supreme Court, of course, he should, at some point, be lawfully referred to the Prime Minister," Singh said. & Nbsp; He rejected suggestions that he would change his position.

Montreal Campaign on the Train: Despite early hopes, Green May leader Elizabeth May's performances in Quebec have not been reflected. EYE CLEAR / PREMISES

Elizabeth May's hopes of surfing in Quebecer's climate-change fears seem to have vanished: her Green Party remained in fifth place after short-necked and NDP-fourth.

According to polls, May's performances in Quebec have not been reflected, despite early hopes after persuading a high-profile NDP Member - Pierre Nantel in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert - to go green.

Maxime Bernier, leader of the Canadian People's Party, talks to voters on Beauce Road. According to the polls, he is in sixth place. FRANCIS VACHON / MONTREAL GAZETTE

Outgoing Beauce MP and leader of the Canadian People's Party, Maxime Bernier, is in sixth place in the polls throughout the campaign, with support tied to lower individual numbers in both Quebec and the rest of Canada.

Voters are not interested in his message: climate change is not caused by humans and immigration must be dramatically reduced. Pollsters argues that the party only has one chance to win, one at Beauce, where Bernier wants to be re-elected in what seems to be a tight fight.

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